My Position on SpaceX

SpaceX is a company I’ve been following for a very long time, and whose IPO I’ve also been awaiting for a long time. To be honest, I really thought the public listing would happen sooner. Years ago—seven years ago—I talked about SpaceX on Quora, predicting that the IPO would happen within a few years and would make Elon Musk the richest man in the world (at that point he wasn’t yet at the top of the Forbes ranking).

As it turns out, I was wrong: he didn’t wait for SpaceX’s IPO to become the richest person in the world… and the IPO is finally arriving years after what I had estimated.

I invested in Tesla, and it’s one of the best investments I’ve ever made…

And I will invest in SpaceX, because I still believe this company is opening the doors to a market whose potential is far greater than the current valuation.

Comparing SpaceX to any company that has gone public in the past is a poor way to analyze it.

But…

I won’t invest today, and to be honest, I don’t know when I’ll get in.

I’m optimistic about SpaceX, and the space economy is gigantic. I don’t think the people investing in the IPO are making a mistake—but only if they do so with the goal of holding for the long term. Because Musk’s time horizon is long term.

As for me, my investor’s mindset advises me to buy when the price is good, and so when the price isn’t, I generally wait for a solid correction before starting to enter. So for SpaceX I’ll wait—a few weeks, a few months, a few years… I don’t know. Even if deep down a part of me wants to invest at any cost. But that’s FOMO, whereas rationality always delivers better performance.

Anyway, as usual, I’m not telling you what to do. I’ll keep publishing theses on boring subjects that make money—documenting investment theses that are worthwhile for you.

But if you want to learn more about SpaceX and have the fundamental information to understand whether or not this concerns you, here is a complete analysis…

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🔓Macro Notes Premium - SpaceX: The Anatomy of a $1.75 Trillion Bet

On June 12, 2026, SpaceX begins trading on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX at a fixed offer price of $135 per share, pinning the implied valuation near $1.75 trillion. It is the largest IPO in market history — and one of the most divisive.

This report is the deep-dive I promised: a complete, unsentimental breakdown of every revenue vertical, the real numbers behind the headlines, the bull and bear cases on valuation, and where I personally stand on entering the stock.

Here is what the full premium report covers:

PART I — The Numbers Nobody Disputes The actual 2025 financials from the S-1. Revenue, profit, the segment split, and why one business is quietly carrying the entire company.

PART II — Starlink: The Engine Room 61% of revenue, the only profitable segment, 10.3M subscribers — but ARPU is falling. I break down whether the price hikes can reverse it, the maritime/aviation/government upside, and the Direct-to-Cell wildcard.

PART III — Launch: Dominance Without Growth 82–85% of US orbital launches, 165 Falcon 9 flights in 2025… and only 8% YoY segment growth. Why the most dominant launch business on Earth is not where the value is.

PART IV — Starship: The Trillion-Dollar Option The asset that justifies (or destroys) the valuation. Block 3, the Artemis delays, the NASA contract that’s now open to competitors, and how to price an option on Mars.

PART V — The xAI Merger & “Orbital Intelligence” The most controversial part of the story. Why SpaceX merged with xAI, what “compute in orbit” actually means, and why it pushed the company to a reported $4.3–5B net loss.

PART VI — The Total Addressable Market The $1.8 trillion space economy by 2035 — and the honest math on how much of it SpaceX can actually capture.

PART VII — Valuation: 109x Sales, Decoded The bull case, the bear case (including Jim Chanos’s objection), the multiple vs. Tesla and Palantir, and three scenarios with target ranges.

PART VIII — My Position Where I stand, why I’m not buying at $135 today, and the specific conditions under which I’d enter.

This is a long-term holding thesis on a generational asset — read before you decide whether to chase the open.